3, precision reducer benefit from humanoid robots to drive the market space is broad, domestic replacement is imperative

3.1 Precision reducer downstream applications are rich, humanoid robots will open the growth space of precision reducer

810-099175-012 Precision reducer downstream applications are rich, can be used for robots, CNC machine tools and other high-end industries, according to the first leopard research Institute data, in 2022, China’s precision reducer downstream applications, industrial robots, semiconductor equipment, machine tools ranked in the top three, accounting for 44.8%, 11.3%, 6.3%.

Precision reducer can be used in the machine tool industry, precision planetary reducer is widely used in metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, woodworking machinery and other subdivision machine tools. Due to the processing of the machine tool itself, the conditions of the load inertia system change greatly, and it is necessary to install a precision reducer to increase torque and improve the inertia matching at the load end, so that the inertia operation is smooth. According to VDW statistics, the global metal processing machine tool output value in 2021 reached 70.9 billion euros, an increase of 20%, of which, the global metal cutting machine tool output value of 50.1 billion euros, metal forming machine tool output value of 20.7 billion euros, metal cutting machine and metal forming machine tool ratio of about 70% and 30%. In 2021, the output value of metal cutting machine tools in China is 21.814 billion euros, an increase of 28.7%, accounting for 30.7% of the global market size.

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Precision reducer is the core component of industrial robot. Precision reducer can be used for multiple links of industrial robots, such as harmonic reducer can be used for robot forearm, wrist and other positions, RV reducer can be used for large arm, shoulder and other high load positions, according to the first Leopard research Institute data show that in 2022, the upstream links of industrial robots: reducer, servo system, controller, body cost ratio are: 35%, 25%, 10%, 15%.

810-099175-012 The continuous expansion of the industrial robot market will drive the further expansion of the reducer. According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute, the market size of China’s industrial robots will reach 58.517 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.5% from 2019 to 2022, and it is expected that the market size of China’s industrial robots will increase to 72.642 billion yuan in 2024. In 2022, the cumulative output of industrial robots in industrial enterprises above designated size in the country is 443,100 sets, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.61% in the past five years, and it is expected that the output of industrial robots in China will reach 489,200 sets in 2024.

Humanoid robots are expected to become a new increment, further opening up the precision reducer market space. The Tesla Optimus Gen2, for example, uses 14 rotary actuators and a harmonic reducer, which is expected to account for 13% of the value of humanoid robots by 2030, according to the First Leopard Institute. According to the forecast of the China Business Industry Research Institute, China’s humanoid robot market 2023-2030, according to the average annual compound growth rate of 30%, it is expected that by 2030, China’s humanoid robot market is expected to reach about 870 billion yuan, humanoid robot industrialization is expected to accelerate the landing of precision reducer open enough market space.