500SCM01-1MRB200059C-1MRB15004R0001 There are still barriers to precision reducer, domestic replacement is imperative

3.4 There are still barriers to precision reducer, domestic replacement is imperative

3.4.1 Harmonic reducer: The market is relatively concentrated, Hamanaco occupies the main position, and the domestic leader is green harmonic

According to the forecast of the China Business Industry Research Institute, the market size of harmonic reducer in 2022 in China is about 2.1 billion yuan, and the market size is expected to exceed 3 billion yuan in 2025. According to the forecast of Huajing Industry Research Institute, the global robot downstream harmonic reducer market size is 2.3 billion yuan in 2021, is expected to reach 2.9 billion yuan in 2022, close to 4.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the market space CAGR in 2022-2025 is about 19.1%.

500SCM01-1MRB200059C-1MRB15004R0001 From a global point of view, according to the data of the China Economic Industry Research Institute, in 2021, the global harmonic reducer market share of Hamenaco is the largest, accounting for about 82%, and the green harmonic accounts for 7%. From the perspective of the domestic market, in the competitive pattern of China’s harmonic reducer market in 2022, Hamenaco has the largest market share, accounting for 38%, followed by Green’s harmonic market share of 26%. At present, China’s domestic brands in the market share continues to increase, domestic harmonic reducer has basically been able to achieve domestic replacement, in terms of deceleration ratio, output speed, transmission accuracy and overseas brands significantly narrow the gap.

According to the data of Zhiyan Consulting, the output of harmonic reducer in 2022 in China is about 463,000 units. With the steady advancement of domestic industry 4.0, robots and other related industries have good growth prospects, the output of domestic industrial robots will show a steady growth trend, the development of downstream manufacturing will become an important thrust to promote the investment expansion of upstream harmonic reducer manufacturers, the demand for harmonic reducer in China in 2022 is about 1,353,900 units, The average market price is about 2048 yuan per unit, which is still in short supply.

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3.4.1 RV reducer: Nabotsk occupies the leading position

500SCM01-1MRB200059C-1MRB15004R0001 According to QYResearch data, the global RV reducer market size reached 857.44 million US dollars in 2020, and is expected to reach 1535.02 million US dollars in 2027, with a compound growth rate (CAGR) of 7.74% from 2021 to 2027. According to the data of Zhongshang Industrial Research Institute, the market size of RV reducer in China in 2021 is about 4.29 billion yuan, an increase of 50%. It is expected that the RV reducer market size is expected to reach 6 billion yuan by 2025.

According to Zhiresearch consulting data, in 2022, in the RV reducer market in China, Japan’s Nabotsk occupied 51% of the market, and Sumitomo Heavy Industries occupied 5% of the market. China’s RV reducer started late, and is limited by the domestic processing level, the shortcomings of China’s precision reducer include limited accuracy can not be maintained for a long time, easy fatigue and so on. The domestic manufacturers of RV reducer mainly have double ring drive, Zhuhai Pegasus, China Great Power De, Nantong Zhenkang, Qinchuan machine tools and so on.