Caixin China manufacturing PMI in May, released on June 3, recorded 51.7, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and recorded a new high since July 2022, and the manufacturing industry boom continued to improve.

However, this is not consistent with the trend of the official PMI: May 31, the National Bureau of Statistics service industry survey center and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data show that in May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, the level of manufacturing prosperity has fallen.

IS200VRTDH1D In the view of industry experts, the official PMI is more comprehensive, while the Caixin PMI mainly targets small and medium-sized enterprises. The Caixin manufacturing PMI index rebounded in May, reflecting the improvement of the prosperity of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.

In this regard, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, said in an interview with China Business News that “the trend of Caixin and official PMI in May is not consistent, mainly due to the difference in the statistical samples of the two.”

“In comparison, the number of official manufacturing PMI sample enterprises is more, the weight of large and medium-sized central state-owned enterprises is higher, and the sample enterprises are all over the country; Caixin manufacturing PMI sample enterprises are mainly small and medium-sized private enterprises, and sample enterprises are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas.” Chen Li said that the proportion of enterprises in the eastern coastal region engaged in export business is larger, benefiting from the recovery of external demand to boost exports, May Caixin manufacturing PMI performance better than the official manufacturing PMI.

For the phenomenon that the official manufacturing PMI fell in May, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the service industry Survey center of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said that this was influenced by factors such as the formation of a higher base and insufficient effective demand during the faster growth of the manufacturing industry in the early period.

Specific to the five sub-indexes of the official manufacturing PMI, the production index was 50.8%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the critical point, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises continues to expand; At the same time, the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has slightly accelerated. However, the new orders index was 49.6%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in demand in the manufacturing market. In addition, the raw material inventory index and the employment index are below the critical point.

IS200VRTDH1D In the Caixin China manufacturing PMI in May, the production index rose to a new high since July 2022, the new orders index fell slightly in the expansion range, and the new export orders index slowed down significantly but remained above the critical point.

Chen Li told reporters: “The official PMI production index has fallen from the previous month, but it is still in the expansion range, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises is still expanding, and the supply side is performing well; The good performance of the Caixin PMI production index indicates that China’s domestic demand is stabilizing and recovering, and the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones are effective, and manufacturing enterprises are more willing to expand production.”

Zheng Lei, chief economist of Samoya Cloud Technology Group, also analyzed in an interview with reporters: “The production index of Caixin and the official PMI in May is better, which may mean that the production activity of the manufacturing industry is accelerating.”