The domestic industrial chain is expected to benefit fully

Tesla is a pioneer in the market for humanoid robots. In October 2022, the company officially introduced its first humanoid robot, Optimus, at an AI Day event, which is scheduled to go on sale as early as next year for $20,000 each.

According to the disclosed hardware scheme, the Tesla humanoid torso has a total of 28 joints, requiring 14 rotary actuators (frameless torque motor + reducer), 14 linear actuators (frameless torque motor + planetary roller screw), dexterous hands (hollow cup motor + precision planetary gearbox) and sensors (28 torque sensors +3 cameras + other related sensors).

According to Precedence Research, the humanoid robot market is expected to reach $28.66 billion by 2032. The domestic industry chain leads the world in cost reduction and scale production, and is expected to fully benefit from the outbreak of the robot market.

Looking back on the development of humanoid robots, there are three important signs: the first stage: the early development stage represented by the humanoid robot of Waseda University; The second stage: the system highly integrated development stage represented by Honda humanoid robot; The third stage: the high dynamic motion development stage represented by the Boston Dynamics humanoid robot.

Humanoid robot technology barriers are very high, non-ordinary robot manufacturers can be short-term transformation. At present, a number of robots have been launched in China, and great progress has been made in the “imitation of human beings”.

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In 2017, BHR-6 developed by Beijing Institute of Technology realized the international first fall protection, tumbling, walking, running, jumping and other modal motion and conversion functions, and could stand up again after falling. Zhejiang University developed “Wukong”, carried out the environmental perception and whole body coordination operation research taking table tennis as an example, and realized the demonstration and verification of humanoid robot playing table tennis. The humanoid robot developed by the Hefei Institute of Physical Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has realized the functions of walking and working, and signed up to participate in the 2023 DARPA Robot Challenge.

In the long term, by 2030, the global humanoid robot market size can reach a trillion scale, is expected to become another AI landing scene blue ocean after intelligent driving electric vehicles, and all links of the humanoid robot industry chain are expected to usher in rapid development opportunities.

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From the current analysis, humanoid robots have a huge potential market space, the end or tens of times higher than the size of the automotive market. According to the latest forecast of Goldman Sachs, in an optimistic state, the compound annual growth rate of humanoid robot sales in 2025-2035 can reach about 94%. If we refer to the global development of electric vehicles and smartphones, it is expected that the sales CAGR of humanoid robots in 2025-2035 will be about 40%.

In other words, this is in line with the characteristics of a large industry space and fast growth. In general, an industry with an annual growth rate of 30% is a very good growth industry, and humanoid robots are likely to bring rich investment opportunities to the capital market in the next few years.