Medium and high-end machine tools rely on imports, independent control of the trend

1, the localization rate has increased, but the import dependence of high-end machine tools is still high

140471-01 At present, China’s machine tool consumption market is roughly a pyramid structure according to grade points, the bottom is low-grade machine tools, accounting for 50-60%, occupied by domestic manufacturers, mainly through the price war to compete, overcapacity; The middle is the mid-range machine tool, accounting for 30-40%, is the main field of competition between Chinese and foreign enterprises; The top is high-end machine tools, accounting for 10%, which are basically from imports and have been monopolized by European and Japanese enterprises for a long time.

The localization rate of China’s machine tool consumption market has been fluctuating at a level of about 70% after a rapid increase in 2003-2008, and the localization rate needs to be improved, and the space elasticity of high-end equipment import substitution is greater. According to Gardner Intelligence data, in 2022, China’s machine tool imports amounted to 7.16 billion US dollars, accounting for 26% of the total consumption, and the overall localization 140471-01 rate was 74%. The domestic rate of high performance and high precision CNC machine tools is even lower. Because low-grade machine tools are mainly provided by domestic manufacturers, because low-grade machine tools are mainly provided by domestic manufacturers, we assume that the imported machine tool set is in the middle and high grade, then the localization rate of middle and high grade machine tools is only 20%-30%.

In recent years, the domestic high-end CNC machine tool market has also emerged a number of emerging private machine tool enterprises with core technology, its products have been widely recognized by the market, the comprehensive competitiveness has been greatly improved, national brands have begun to rise, and gradually formed the trend of import substitution. In addition, in the context of the Sino-US trade war, because the United States has restricted China’s globalization process for various reasons, especially in the high-tech field, the domestic industry supply chain has been forced to adjust, accelerating the process of import substitution.

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2, the market size is large, but the industry concentration is low

Although China is a large machine tool country, but not strong, from the perspective of industry concentration, relative to the high degree of monopoly, the head enterprise scientific and technological innovation and product research and development to lead the development of the industry 140471-01 overseas machine tool market, the number of domestic machine tool market enterprises, small scale, homogenization fierce competition, the overall large but not strong. According to the prospective Industry Research Institute, there are 2,082 surviving enterprises in China’s CNC machine tool industry in 2022, of which 48.13% have registered capital of less than 1 million yuan, and enterprises in the industry are generally small in scale. The industry concentration rate (CRn) and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) are used to measure the domestic/overseas machine tool market concentration. According to the standard of industrial concentration of Bain and MITI, the industrial market structure is roughly divided into oligopoly (CR10>=40%) and competition (CR10<40%). Among them, oligopoly type was subdivided into very high oligopoly type (CR10>=70%) and low concentration oligopoly type (40%<=CR10<70%). The competition type is further subdivided into low concentration competition type (20%<=CR10<40%) and decentralized competition type (CR10<20%). The CR10 of the domestic market in 2022 is only 12.60%, which meets the standard of decentralized competition, the market competition is fierce, and the monopoly ability of the leading enterprises is poor. However, from the trend point of view, the concentration of the machine tool industry is also rising year by year.